Consumer Sentiment Drops to 10 Year Low on Inflation Concerns

University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Drops Below 60

For the first time I over 10 years the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey recorded a sub-sixty figure.

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Consumer sentiment has dropped rather sharply since the start of 2022 as the inflation outlook and conservative growth forecasts began to weigh on consumers.

Takeaways from the preliminary March report:

Personal finances were expected to worsen in the year ahead by the largest proportion since the surveys started in the mid-1940s
Consumer Sentiment continued to decline due to falling inflation-adjusted incomes, recently accelerated by rising fuel prices as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Consumers were slightly more likely to anticipate declines rather than increases in the national unemployment rate. This underlying strength in jobs comes at the cost of pushing inflation even higher due to unrelenting pressures on aggregate demand and supply lines

The final report will be released on the 25th of March

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow

The dollar benchmark, the US Dollar Basket (DXY) rose after the release as prices completed the intra-day recovery from the sharp drop around the time Putin announced there were positive shifts during recent talks. The news of the comments saw the heavily bid dollar drop around 40 points withing 5 minutes and prices have attempted to close the distance ever since.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) 1-Minute Chart