AUD/USD, Australian Employment, Reserve Bank of Australia, Covid – Talking Points
- Australia sees job losses of 138,000 in September, missing estimates of -110k
- Sydney begins to ease lockdowns, hinting at a return to normal for Australia
- Australian unemployment rate rises from 4.5% to 4.6%, expectation was 4.8%
Australian employment data for September came in mixed as the country looks to put the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror. While unemployment ticked higher to 4.6%, it still managed to come in lower than the expected reading of 4.8%. The number of employed persons in the country fell by 138,000, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of -110,000. Labor force participation also decreased, falling 0.7% in September. The mixed report reflects the state of the country’s uneven recovery, with each state imposing its own lockdown measures and boasting varying vaccination rates.
Australian Labor Statistics
Courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Statistics
While Covid cases remain high, Australia appears to be returning to normal as Sydney lifts lockdowns and eases restrictions on citizens. The reopening remains territorial, with different states boasting varying inoculation rates. While New South Wales has 74% of people above the age of 16 fully vaccinated, neighboring Queensland lags well behind at just 52%. It would appear that Australia may experience a “staggered” return to normal as vaccination programs continue to gain steam.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
The Australian Dollar has performed well against the Greenback of late, as higher inflation and rising energy prices boost the Aussie. These catalysts have helped shrug off the dovish nature of the RBA, which has indicated its willingness to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. With lockdowns easing and energy prices remaining firm, the fundamental outlook for the Aussie-Dollar cross remains constructive. Should additional gains materialize, market participants may look to 0.7400 as the next major hurdle.
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— Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern
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