Inflation is not giving up so far – UOB

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviews the latest inflation figures in New Zealand.

Key Takeaways

“CPI climbed 1.8% q/q in 1Q22, an increase from 1.4% q/q in 4Q21. Compared to the same period a year ago, CPI advanced 6.9% y/y, an acceleration from 5.9% y/y in 4Q21. This is the largest movement since a 7.6% annual increase in the Jun 1990 quarter.”

“The latest inflation readings bolster the case for the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be lifted further. Earlier this week (19 Apr), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said that further tighening is needed.”

“We think that it is now likely that the RBNZ will hike by another 50bps at the May meeting, which will include the release of a Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). From there, the RBNZ may pause at the 13 Jul meeting, before moving again in Aug (after having had more data at hand, including 2Q22 CPI data due on 18 Jul).”