NZDUSD stays below the 100 hour moving average
Yesterday, the RBNZ hiked rates by a greater than expected 50 basis points (est 25 bps) and the price for the NZDUSD initially spiked higher.
However, after the NZDUSD price reached the 200 hour MA and the 200 day MA (green lines in the chart above), sellers leaned against the dual moving averages, and the buyers turned to sellers pushing the price sharply to the downside.
The move lower did not end until the 100 day moving average was broken down at 0.6782. The low price reached 0.67513 before snapping back higher modestly and closed back above the 100 day moving average.
In trading today, the price based near the 100 day moving average and rose up to retest its 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the chart above). Sellers leaned against that moving average level and put a halt to the rally for the day.
For the second time in two days, sellers leaned against a key moving average (like they did against the 200 hour/200 day MAs the day before), and the price rotated to the downside.
The subsequent fall to the downside saw the NZDUSD
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD is a commonly offered currency pair representing the New Zealand dollar or Kiwi and US dollar. The pair is popular for exposure into a commodity currency, i.e. the NZD, which helps capture risk appetite for forex traders. Like its Antipodean counterpart, the Australian Dollar, the NZD/USD is seen as a carry trade, due in part to interest rate differentials which favor the NZD. The NZD is the world’s seventh most liquid pair at the time of writing with the USD being the world’s most traded currency and the NZD being the tenth. What Affects the NZD/USD? The NZD/USD is offered at virtually every retail forex brokerage and is a common pair for traders to have experience with. The pair moves on investor sentiment and can be much more volatile than other pairs such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others. Given New Zealand is the world’s largest exporter of milk powder, this metric is a key factor when driving the pair. Any sensitivity to milk powder exports is captured via the NZD/USD. Additionally, tourism is a key contributor to the New Zealand economy and as such help move the currency pair. Other factors of note for the NZD/USD include export volumes to China as well as other important economic data releases from China. Central banks also play a primary role in the direction of the currency pair with both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand being closely monitored by investors. Monetary policy is more than capable of abruptly moving the NZD/USD, which can oscillate much more than other normal pairs.
The NZD/USD is a commonly offered currency pair representing the New Zealand dollar or Kiwi and US dollar. The pair is popular for exposure into a commodity currency, i.e. the NZD, which helps capture risk appetite for forex traders. Like its Antipodean counterpart, the Australian Dollar, the NZD/USD is seen as a carry trade, due in part to interest rate differentials which favor the NZD. The NZD is the world’s seventh most liquid pair at the time of writing with the USD being the world’s most traded currency and the NZD being the tenth. What Affects the NZD/USD? The NZD/USD is offered at virtually every retail forex brokerage and is a common pair for traders to have experience with. The pair moves on investor sentiment and can be much more volatile than other pairs such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others. Given New Zealand is the world’s largest exporter of milk powder, this metric is a key factor when driving the pair. Any sensitivity to milk powder exports is captured via the NZD/USD. Additionally, tourism is a key contributor to the New Zealand economy and as such help move the currency pair. Other factors of note for the NZD/USD include export volumes to China as well as other important economic data releases from China. Central banks also play a primary role in the direction of the currency pair with both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand being closely monitored by investors. Monetary policy is more than capable of abruptly moving the NZD/USD, which can oscillate much more than other normal pairs.
Read this Term price break back below the 100 day moving average. However, the price has since seen a rotation back higher.
The current price traded above and below that moving average as the trading day works to an end. Tomorrow – although the forex market will remain open – the volatility
Volatility
In terms of trading, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of an index or asset, such as forex, commodities, stocks, over a given time period. Trading volatility can be a means of describing an instrument’s fluctuation. For example, a highly volatile stock equates to large fluctuations in price, whereas a low volatile stock equates to tepid fluctuations in price. Overall, volatility is an important statistical indicator used by many parties, including financial traders, analysts, and brokers. Volatility can be an important determinant in developing trading systems, protocols, or regulations.In the retail space, traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, however the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Is Volatility Good or Bad? In the forex space, lower levels of volatile across currency pairs offer less surprises, movements, and are suited to certain types of individuals such as position traders.By extension, high volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders. This is due to rapid and strong movements, which collectively offer the potential for higher profits.However, the risk associated with such volatile pairs are manifold. Of note, volatility with instruments or indices can and do change over time. There can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. For example, certain months in the summer are associated with low trading volatility.Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much. Too much volatility can instill panic and create its own issues, such as liquidity constraints.A famous example of this are considered Black Swan events, which have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
In terms of trading, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of an index or asset, such as forex, commodities, stocks, over a given time period. Trading volatility can be a means of describing an instrument’s fluctuation. For example, a highly volatile stock equates to large fluctuations in price, whereas a low volatile stock equates to tepid fluctuations in price. Overall, volatility is an important statistical indicator used by many parties, including financial traders, analysts, and brokers. Volatility can be an important determinant in developing trading systems, protocols, or regulations.In the retail space, traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, however the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Is Volatility Good or Bad? In the forex space, lower levels of volatile across currency pairs offer less surprises, movements, and are suited to certain types of individuals such as position traders.By extension, high volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders. This is due to rapid and strong movements, which collectively offer the potential for higher profits.However, the risk associated with such volatile pairs are manifold. Of note, volatility with instruments or indices can and do change over time. There can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. For example, certain months in the summer are associated with low trading volatility.Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much. Too much volatility can instill panic and create its own issues, such as liquidity constraints.A famous example of this are considered Black Swan events, which have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
Read this Term should be much less as result of Good Friday.
What next?
With the 200 hour moving average stalling the rise yesterday, and the lower 100 hour moving average stalling the rally today, that keeps the sellers more control. The best case scenario for the sellers would be to move back below the 100 day moving average, will below the low today which was also a swing low from March 16 at 0.6766, and then take out the low for the week at 0.67513 with the swing low from March 15 at 0.6728 the next downside target. Those would be the steps in the downward direction.
Conversely if the buyers end up leaning against the 100 day moving average and pushing back to the upside, ahead of the 100 hour moving averages the 0.6805 to 0.68117. Swing area get above that and then the falling 100 hour moving average and the door opens for further upside probing.
Having said that, the price is still well below the 38.2% retracement at 0.6859 and the falling 200 hour moving average currently at 0.6874. Both those levels would need to be broken to give the buyers more confidence.
So the roadmap is laid out. The sellers are more control below the 200 and 100 hour moving average, with swing lows the next downside targets.
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