The bigger bull has just gone into hibernation and lurks in the background – DBS Bank

USD/JPY has pushed to a recent 125.09 high before correcting lower. Technically, USD/JPY looks for pause, but the declines have yet to dent the bull run and are rather limited in scope, Benjamin Wong, Strategist at DBS Bank, reports.

USD/JPY is likely to pause and consolidate in the near-term

“Any USD/JPY drop would focus on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move higher from 102.59 at 119.78 (which approximates the daily Ichimoku’s Kijun support at 119.87).”

“USD is likely to pause and consolidate in the near term. But the ‘bigger’ bull has just gone into hibernation and lurks in the background – unless USD breaks lower on YCC being abandoned and through a sustained loss under the weekly Ichimoku’s 116.29 pivot.”

“A return of the USD bull should retest the 125.09 prior peak, onward for a 1.618% Fibonacci extension that targets 126.09. A break over the horizontal neckline that links 124.14 and 125.86 (June 2007 peak and June 2015 peak) at 127.30, would unleash a 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the distance between 75.35 and 125.86 (2011 lows and 2015 highs) transposed over 99.02 (2016 lows) yielding 130.23.”