21-day EMA restricts short-term downside

WTI struggles to justify the first daily close below 10-day EMA in three weeks, sidelined of late.
Receding bearish bias of MACD keeps sellers hopeful.
Convergence of ascending trend line from December, 50% Fibonacci retracement appears tough nut to crack for bears.

WTI treads water around $103.90 heading into Friday’s European session, following the first daily closing below short-term key EMA in several days.

In addition to the sustained close below the 10-day EMA, an impending bear cross of the MACD line and the signal line also favor sellers.

However, a clear downside break of the 21-day EMA level of $101.40 becomes necessary to convince the oil bears.

Even so, an upward sloping trend line from December 20, 2021, joins 50% Fibonacci retracement of December-March upside to restrict the quote’s downside around $94.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $100.00 threshold.

On the flip side, a daily close beyond the 10-day EMA, around 106.45 by the press time, will direct the WTI crude oil buyers towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding $111.40.

Following that, the $120.00 round figure and the latest multi-month high around $126.50 will lure the commodity bulls.

Overall, WTI crude oil is expected to decline further but the bullish trend is here to stay.